Abstract

The evolution of the homicide rate in the outskirts of Buenos Aires and also the existing relation between these episodes and the macroeconomic processes developed in Argentina during period 1989-2006 were analyzed. An ecological study was carried out with correlation analysis among detrended series of the variables to assess the association between mortality by manslaughter and selected macroeconomic indicators (previous softening process according to Hodrick-Prescott). The main results are: the homicide rate decreases during the two first years to keep itself stable till 1997, then it starts increasing. It reaches its peak in 2002 (11,1 per 100.000 inhabitants) to start a decline that in 2006 present similar values to the ones in 1992. A significant correlation was found between the homicide rate and the Gini coefficient (according to family incomes), the percentage of the population under the poverty line and the NGP. No correlation was found between homicides and unemployment. The findings suggest that the homicide rate is directly related to poverty and inequality, and inversely to economic development.